Forecasting
SRI offers end‑to‑end forecasting solutions that help guide strategic planning, asset valuation, and commercial decision‑making for our life science clients. Our offerings include demand forecasting, launch planning, lifecycle management analyses, revenue projections, scenario modeling, and forecasting support for portfolio or BD&L assessments.
Our forecasting models are designed to address the unique dynamics of therapeutic markets, complex patient journeys, competitive intensity, evolving treatment guidelines, and a highly regulated access environment. Our forecast expertise includes:
- Epidemiology‑Based Forecasts: Bottom‑up models built from disease prevalence, incidence, diagnosis, and treatment rates to estimate addressable patient populations and therapy uptake.
- Prescription and Sales‑Based Forecasts: Top‑down models that leverage historical analogs, prescription trends, promotional response, and market share dynamics to predict future performance.
- Launch and Uptake Models: Frameworks incorporating adoption curves, competitive entry, physician behavior, payer access, and market education efforts to estimate early‑stage ramp‑up.
- Event‑Driven or Scenario Forecasts: Models that quantify the impact of uncertainties such as regulatory approvals, label expansions, LOE (loss of exclusivity), supply constraints, or market disruptions.
- Advanced Analytic and AI‑Enabled Forecasts: Machine learning models using real‑world data (claims, EHR, digital signals), leading indicators, and pattern detection to improve forecast accuracy and sensitivity to changing market conditions.
What differentiates our forecast models from the competition:
- Deep therapeutic-area and real-world data expertise
- Transparent, modular models built for cross‑functional use
- Strong grounding in primary market research and HCP/payer insights
- Best‑practice frameworks that enhance forecast credibility
- Close collaboration with commercial, finance, and insights teams
- Deliverables designed for easy integration into client planning tools
Our forecasting models equip pharmaceutical clients with robust insights to guide investment decisions, optimize commercial strategy, and anticipate market evolution.